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Those Who Know Business in Elmhurst Ponder the Economic Impact of the 2012 Election

To spend or not to spend? Opinions vary widely.

 

New businesses have been popping up in Elmhurst at a fairly good pace over the past year or so. Most seem popular—wildely popular, even, like the new Elmhurst Mariano's expected to open in spring 2013.

But other economic signs tell a different story. For every new shop that's opened, another has closed, including a trio of bakeries: Julianne's, Heavenly Cupcake, Bleeding Heart. And, the stalled Hahn Street project for the past six years has been tweaked, postponed, moved into a new TIF district, sent back to the drawing board and now is being evaluated by experts to determine its best use. Consultants say apartments should go there. Some Elmhurst aldermen aren't thrilled with that assessment.

So, we're fresh off a presidential election that basically re-seated the same commander in chief and resulted in the same balance of power in Congress. Locally, Illinois voters strengthened Speaker Michael Madigan's control in Springfield. What does all this mean for new and established Elmhurst businesses? The answer varies widely, depending on which Elmhurst businessperson you ask.

Frank Catalano Jr., Catalano & Associates

Frank Catalano is president of a local real estate management company and has been in the business for decades.

Four years ago, when Barack Obama was elected to his first term, the economy began to change, Catalano said, and it took two to three years for business owners and individuals to get used to the new normal.

"So, you're finally starting to feel good that you can still make a living, still do what you need to do," he said. "For myself and my friends, we've had to revise our lifestyle, let's face it."

But now, days after Obama is re-elected, questions swirl about the looming "fiscal cliff," unknown elements of the Affordable Healthcare Act and other wild cards, he said.

"Now, all of a sudden, you're going to have another whole set of issues coming up and I don't know if that's good, bad or indifferent. Nobody knows. I haven't seen a plan that says, OK, here's what we're going to do."

The unknown is keeping some business owners in a holding pattern. Catalano says he knows of business owners close to retirement age who really don't need to keep working, but do so for the enjoyment and to provide jobs for others.

"They're throwing up their hands and saying, 'You know, I've got enough money. I'm doing this because I like coming into the office, I enjoy working. But I don't need to sit here with all this risk if I'm not making any money anymore.' "

He said he has a lot of projects on the table, and "now we're reviewing everything."

"If the Republicans went back in, I knew we were ready to pull the trigger on a couple of decent projects in Elmhurst. Now, I need to see what the tax consequences are. Am I going to invest money in a project that I'm not going to get a return on? I might as well just sit back and wait."

It's going to take some bipartisan work in Washington, he said.

"Unless our president reaches across the aisle, gets everybody on the same page and starts leading instead of following polls, it's going to be a tough haul," he said.

Catalano is cautiously optimistic.

"My first reaction is, this is the hand we were dealt. Now we just need to figure out how to make money under this new situation."

He said he doesn't feel overly impacted by state and local governmental issues.

"We're concerned about property taxes continuing to increase because we own a lot of real estate," he said. "But that's really the only (local business-related) concern I have right now."

John Quigley, Elmhurst Chamber President, CEO

With the same president in office and the same balance of power in Congress, John Quigley foresees no dramatic change in the business climate due to the national election.

"A bigger impact in terms of Illinois business might be the situation in the Illinois House, now that there is a veto-proof majority," he said. "It strengthened Speaker Michael Madigan's control in Springfield, and now it's yet to be seen whether work can be done to eliminate the state's huge budget deficit."

The state is $9 billion behind in bill payments—even with a major income tax increase—and $80 billion behind in pension funding, he said. Workman's compensation also has to be revisited to lower the cost to businesses, he said.

But in Elmhurst, businesses that had been awaiting the results of the presidential election are now ready to move forward, Quigley said. Businesses that will be impacted by Obamacare have already been planning for it and have put mechanisms in place to implement it, he said. Manufacturing has been bouncing back at a 6 to 7 percent rate per year, he said.

"Caterpillar, John Deere, they're doing really well," he said. "We're shipping tractors and cranes, front-end loaders and dump trucks all over the world for construction projects."

The auto industry and its related industries also are doing well, entrepreneurship is growing, women-owned businesses are growing, consumer confidence is up and that mirrors the national trend, Quigley said.

"Those are all good indicators," he said. "Even in a down economy, there are opportunities available.

"I've had businesses tell me this year was their best year in a decade, let alone their best year since the downturn. There are still horror stories out there, but the reality is, businesses fail on a regular basis whether the economy is good or bad."

Jason Janes, Financial Advisor, Edward Jones

What does Jason Janes tell his clients? The investment world is dictated more by corporate profits than political posturing.

"As we measure the profitability of the S&P 500, collectively (those businesses) have never been more profitable," he said. "We think corporate earnings or profitability is the tail that wags the dog."

There is no way to figure out how political compromises, necessary to make progress, will shape businesses, he said.

"Everything is in proposal (phases) now and they have a lot of work to do, but as it relates to advising clients, we have to take what's guaranteed and what's certain out there."

And, that is?

Markets had a great year under the same president some people are now worried about, the S&P 500 has never been more profitable and companies have a lot of cash on hand they are starting to spend, he said.

Actual indicators show when corporations have money on the balance sheet, they either pay it in the form of income or dividends, they build infrastructure, or they hire people, he said.

"Any of those are great options" for business, Janes said. The first sign companies are loosening up their purse strings is mergers and acquisitions, which have been occurring more over the last two quarters, he said.

"Companies are saying there's opportunity here to acquire either a strategic partner or a smaller company that gets them into a niche that they previously didn't have exposure in," Janes said. "I'd say the most common area that's happening in is biotech—nanotechnology—as well as technology.

"Google is one of those companies that said, 'What are we going to do with all this cash? They decided they want to compete in the wireless phone business, and they can do that effectively (by partnering with Motorola)."

On a personal level, Janes said his business has never been better.

"Three of the past four years have been three of my best years in business in 11 years," he said. "So I'd say, yes, we're heading in the right direction. And with almost no change whatsoever in Washington, D.C., I don't think (the election) will derail us. Hopefully, we're on the road to the right place."

Related Topics: Business Owners, Catalano, Elmhurst, economic impact, and presidential election

The Czar

8:26 am on Friday, November 9, 2012

There's nothing to derail us? Conservatives think insolvency will ultimately have very unpleasant consequences, liberals feel insolvency is not a big deal (provided their guy is leading). We are now on an inexorable path towards $20 + trillion in debt and a trade imbalance (middle east petro imports) that saps the ability of our economy to grow. The question is: What's the tipping point? I fear for our country and for our children that we will find out all too soon.

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Carol

11:59 am on Friday, November 9, 2012

I have cashed out all my funds and secured them for now. I refuse to pay higher taxers on my savings gains for AHA/Obamacare. I will do everything to not buy or invest. Many business people will be leaving this state because of the high taxes.
The picture is not as rosey as portrayed by most in this article.
The situation will get worse when you look at the unvetted people that we elected to go to Springfield and Washington. I am for the first time not optimistic. I pray to God that I stay health.

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Melissa D

3:29 pm on Friday, November 9, 2012

Mr. Catalano, It's not about President Obama reaching across the aisle. He is as centrist as it gets in terms of finances. Look at all the Wall Street insiders in the White House and how NO ONE was punished for the financial shenanigans and gambling the benefited a select few at the top and that nearly ruined this country.

No, it's about the Congressional Republicans obstructing every they could in order to appeal to their base and keep their big business friends contributing to their campaign coffers. So they refuse to pass anything at all, which hurts everyone. When President Obama was first elected John Boehner pledged on behalf of the Congressional Republicans that they would not work with Democrats and would do everything in their power to prevent Democrats from accomplishing anything. They thought that doing so would weaken the Dems and provide an opening for a Republican President in '12. That has not happened, and its time to move on and get the work done. It is time for the obstructionism to STOP and for our do-nothing Congress to do what they are paid a salary to do - pass legislation that benefits the American people - and NOT do what only benefits their own campaign funds.

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Dave

3:52 pm on Friday, November 9, 2012

To view this dispassionately for a moment, the difficulty is that the two parties have radically different views on what kind of economy we should have, how to reignite it, and how to create jobs. "Working together" is just about impossible, as a practical matter, under those circumstances. Any party that works with the other party is necessarily abandoning its principles. So I do not agree that the Republicans were "obstructing" to appeal to their "base," as you call it, they opposed Democratic policies because they believed they would be harmful to the economy and job growth in the long run (or even the short run). Full disclosure: I agree for the most part with the Republicans. Consider too that a view days ago Harry Reid said that if Romney became President he would do all he could to block his initiatives. As things turned out we'll never know if he would have done that, but I am quite sure he would have, and given the difference in philosophies of the two parties I understand it. I don't like it, but I understand it. I think we have to realize that half the country views things one way, and the other half views things much differently. There may not be a palatable resolution to this problem.

Dave

4:05 pm on Friday, November 9, 2012

Mr. Janes, I have read a number of pieces that conclude the reasons these companies are profitable at the moment is because they have reduced their employee payrolls, but that the prospects for growth are questionable because of the state of the economy, problems in Europe, and uncertainty over the impact of Obamacare. (I recently read that someone described Obamacare as 900 pages of unintended consequences -- not surprising since no one in Congress read the Act before passing it.) So while some companies may have cash on hand, are they going to spend it, or are they going to view that as imprudent in the present economic climate and in the face of a lot of uncertainty? I am curious as to your views on this.

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Margaret

4:29 pm on Friday, November 9, 2012

Totally agree, Melissa. We got in this mess because a previous administration thought giving tax cuts to the wealthy (twice), war (two), and not negotiating with drug companies to get lower prices for a prescription drug program (Medicare prescriptions for seniors) didn't need to be paid for. For four years, the President has been trying to get things on track despite Congressional Republicans who put party ahead of country. The stimulus plan was a success, it put people back to work; aid to the auto industry saved the industry and has been repaid to the U.S. Treasury; some regulation of an out-of-control Wall Street was enacted. But that is rehashing the past, and you can't change the past. The President and Congressional Democrats and Republicans need to sit down, determine the scope of the problems facing the country, set forth ways to meet these problems, and then compromise on workable solutions. Presidents and Congressional leaders of opposite parites have worked together in the past. This is a 21st-century, globally interdependent world; we need our leaders to be wise enough to take care of the the present and plan for the future, if there is to be one for us and our progeny.

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The Czar

10:58 pm on Friday, November 9, 2012

Margaret ~ Under Clinton Era Tax rates, US tax revenues were:
$4.3 trillion in 1999
$4.1 trillion in 2000
$3.9 trillion in 2001
$3.5 trillion in 2002.....then came the "tax cuts for the wealthy", with revenues of
$3.8 trillion in 2003
$4.1 trillion in 2004
$4.3 trillion in 2005
$4.5 trillion in 2006
$4.9 trillion in 2007
In light of real empirical data, I'm not sure what point are you trying to make about "giving tax cuts to the wealthy"? Further, GM still owes the treasury $25 Billion and the government forced GM bondholders to take a $20 Billion "haircut". That is hardly praiseworthy results for the auto industry. Look into factual data before you write. The alternative is mindless recitation of talking points, which don't stand up to scrutiny when examined, and reflect poorly on any point you might be trying to make. PS ~ the statute of limitations on blaming W expired long ago.

Independence666

12:00 pm on Saturday, November 10, 2012

America's best days are behind us. The wisest business people will continue to do everything they can to avoid the taxman. They will invest their dollars in business friendly countries like Singapore and hire lower paid harder working people in places like China and Malaysia (can you say Apple?). Another four years of this clueless administration will ensure that we never get our global leadership position back. As the song once said, "the good times are really over for good".

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Dave

12:35 pm on Saturday, November 10, 2012

At a minimum, we have some very difficult years ahead of us. For example,because of the impact of Obamacare (which will be even more onerous in 2014), Welch Allyn (a manufacturer of medical devices) is laying off 10% if its workforce, Stryker (another medical manufacturer) is laying off 5%, Boston Scientific is laying off between 1,200 and 1,400 people, Medtronic is laying off 1,000 people, Boeing is making huge cuts in one of its divisions. The list goes on and on. These aren't "evil corporations" being hurt, these are real people losing their jobs in industries that are under assault by this administration.. Think about that folks, these are your fellow Americans losing their jobs. Oh well, as they say, elections have consequences. And I'm afraid the consequences of this election ain't good.

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